For today’s episode, Andreas is joined by Hampus Jakobsson, General Partner at Pale Blue Dot, Michael Smith, General Partner at Regeneration VC, and Tobias Seikel from Planet A to discuss the future of climate tech in the wake of Trump’s reelection. Together, they analyze how shifting narratives and geopolitical dynamics will impact the climate agenda and the broader venture ecosystem.
The conversation covers:
Adapting to uncertainty: How portfolio companies are navigating mistrust and unpredictability while focusing on solving real business problems.
Lessons from China: Insights into China’s strategic focus on solar, EVs, and battery production, and how Europe can adopt similar multi-decade planning while fostering cross-border unity.
The role of big bets: Reflecting on the fallout of Lilium and Northvolt, the group emphasizes the importance of learning from failures and continuing to back transformative projects in Europe.
Stimulating growth: What an ideal EU stimulus plan could look like, from collaborative cross-border energy grids to dual-use strategies between defense and green tech.
Watch it here or add it to your episodes on Apple or Spotify 🎧 chapters for easy navigation available on the Spotify/Apple episode.
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✍️ Show notes
Describe your vantage point in the climate tech ecosystem.
The European climate tech ecosystem thrives on diverse perspectives and strategies, each addressing critical global challenges. By leveraging distinct vantage points, leaders can foster impactful solutions that align innovation with sustainability.
Tobi (Planet A): Focused on quantifiable environmental impact, Planet A specializes in scalable green technologies. By integrating a dedicated science team to assess lifecycle impacts, their investments target the sweet spot where business scalability meets environmental sustainability.
Michael (Regeneration VC): Anchored in the circular economy, Regeneration VC tackles waste across consumer value chains such as apparel, packaging, and electronics. The fund bridges European and North American markets, advancing technologies that align with planetary boundaries and profitability.
Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Investing at the earliest stages, Pale Blue Dot supports founders building solutions for long-term planetary alignment. With a contrarian approach to the "climate tech" label, they emphasize real business impact while navigating the evolving narrative landscape.
Will Trump’s policies have severe impacts on the climate agenda?
The reelection of Trump is expected to reshape the climate agenda, creating ripple effects globally. While opinions differ, the consensus is that uncertainty will dominate the landscape, influencing both narrative and policy priorities.
Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Anticipates significant narrative shifts, with a focus on reframing terminology and public discourse. However, he predicts limited divergence from the core agenda, estimating that 60% of goals will remain intact.
Michael (Regeneration VC): Highlights the inevitability of instability and uncertainty. The U.S.'s reliability in global climate cooperation is likely to decline further, complicating international collaboration on critical issues.
Tobi (Planet A): Emphasizes the bipartisan benefits of measures like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), ensuring partial continuity. However, he foresees a stronger focus on oil and gas, potentially undermining renewable energy progress.
How are your portfolio companies reacting to this uncertainty?
In an era marked by shifting policies and heightened unpredictability, portfolio companies are adjusting their strategies to navigate the evolving landscape. The focus has shifted towards resilience, economic viability, and immediate impact.
Michael (Regeneration VC): Companies are prioritizing solutions to real, pressing business problems rather than relying on long-term narratives. Addressing immediate needs ensures sustainability and commercial relevance in uncertain times.
Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): The current climate of mistrust and unpredictability has led to an emphasis on short-term strategies. Businesses are adapting to ensure they can operate effectively within rapidly changing conditions.
Tobi (Planet A): Economic viability is key. Companies cannot rely on green premiums to justify their business models. Instead, they must focus on solutions that are both sustainable and financially competitive.
Lessons Europe Can Learn from China’s Climate Strategy
China’s rapid advancements in climate tech provide valuable insights for Europe as it navigates its own challenges. By studying China’s strategic focus, Europe can strengthen its competitive edge and global leadership.
Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): China's concentrated efforts on solar, EVs, and battery production demonstrate the power of prioritizing specific industries. Europe could replicate this approach by aligning resources and policies around key technologies.
Michael (Regeneration VC): Long-term, multi-decade investments have been critical to China’s success. Europe should focus on collaboration and leveraging its diverse strengths, avoiding the pitfalls of de-globalized, isolated strategies.
Tobi (Planet A): Cross-border unity is essential for Europe to compete globally. Instead of individual nations vying for dominance, Europe needs to act as a cohesive entity, focusing on shared goals like grid integration and energy security.
What would an ideal EU stimulus plan look like?
An effective EU stimulus plan should prioritize unity, innovation, and strategic investments to ensure long-term resilience and sustainability across the region.
Tobi (Planet A): Europe needs to transcend fragmented national policies and adopt a unified approach. Coordinated efforts will unlock the region's full potential and foster global competitiveness.
Michael (Regeneration VC): Dual-use strategies combining defense and green tech can create synergies that drive both security and sustainability. Such investments can position Europe as a leader in future industries.
Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Establishing cross-border energy grids and fostering collaborative resource sharing are vital. Integrated infrastructure will enhance energy efficiency and support Europe’s renewable energy transition.
The Fallout of Lilium and Northvolt: Implications for the Ecosystem
The challenges faced by Lilium and Northvolt highlight the inherent risks of innovation but also underscore the importance of learning, resilience, and continued investment in transformative ventures.
Tobi (Planet A): Failures are an inevitable part of innovation. Rather than retreat, Europe must learn from these setbacks and continue to make bold investments in ambitious projects.
Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Venture capital thrives on high-risk, high-reward bets. While failures draw attention, they are a natural outcome of pushing boundaries and should not deter the ecosystem's momentum.
Michael (Regeneration VC): Europe must embrace its regulatory strengths and maintain its commitment to long-term, transformative projects. Strategic planning and targeted support will ensure sustained progress despite occasional setbacks.
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