Welcome back to another episode of Upside where Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen of SuperSeed, Lomax Ward of Outsized Ventures and Andrew J. Scott go behind the headlines shaping European tech, capital, and power.
From Saudi Arabia’s surprisingly coherent Vision 2030 to Europe’s chronic inability to articulate a shared mission, this is a wide-ranging conversation about strategy, scale, and what actually forces societies to act.
Along the way, the panel digs into autonomous AI agents that can negotiate car purchases and manage your inbox, the $100B arms race between OpenAI and Anthropic, ASML’s signal on the durability of the AI buildout, and why defense spending is becoming Europe’s most structurally important tech opportunity.
The episode also tackles the uncomfortable questions of whether Europe only moves under pressure, whether the United States of Europe is real or pure projection, and whether social media bans and AI retraining schemes are genuine policy or just optics.
This is Upside, where optimism is earned, not assumed.
What’s covered:
02:00 Saudi Arabia surprise: Riyadh, Vision 2030, and first-hand reality vs headlines
04:20 Does Europe need a guiding mission? Why strategy fails without pressure
09:25 Moltbot (ex-Clawdbot): AI agents with real system-level power
12:30 AI in the wild: negotiating car deals, buying groceries, breaking trust models
16:20 The AI capital war: OpenAI vs Anthropic and the economics of scale
24:10 Big tech earnings: ASML, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and what actually matters
34:00 The “United States of Europe”: fantasy, fear, or slow inevitability?
49:30 Europe re-arms: defence budgets, capability gaps, and startup opportunities.
01:01:00 Social media bans, litigation, and training 10 million people for AI
🎧 Listen on Apple or Spotify, or queue it for later with chapters ready to go.
Saudi Arabia and Strategic Clarity
A first-hand look at Riyadh challenges Western assumptions. Vision 2030 may come from a centralized regime, but it provides something Europe lacks: a clear, shared direction that aligns capital, policy, and ambition.
AI Agents Cross the Line
Moltbot represents a genuine shift — not chatbots, but autonomous agents with access to keyboards, inboxes, payments, and systems. Powerful, elegant, and deeply unsettling. The group debates whether this remains a niche geek tool or a preview of mass adoption.
The AI Mega-Rounds Arms Race
OpenAI and Anthropic raise staggering sums, but with very different trajectories. Growth rates, burn, break-even timelines, and IPO narratives begin to matter again, even at the frontier.
ASML and the Reality Check
Europe’s most important tech company signals that the AI buildout is far from over. Memory, lithography, and capex all point to continued demand, even as bureaucratic headcount gets cut and engineers get hired.
Europe, Integration, and Crisis
Trade deals with India and Mercosur highlight Europe’s economic gravity, but unanimity rules, vetoes, and cultural fragmentation remain the core blockers. The group agrees: Europe integrates only when forced.
Defence as the New Structural Theme
From satellites to drones to logistics, Europe’s defence gaps are vast and sticky. If spending holds, defence tech could become the most durable category for European founders over the next decade.
Social Media, Courts, and Policy Divergence
Europe regulates. America litigates. Social media bans for under-15s, US court cases targeting engagement-by-design, and the risk of tobacco-style liability all come into focus.
AI Skills vs AI Welfare
Training citizens to use AI beats expanding welfare, but only if execution matches ambition. A rare moment of policy speed from the UK sparks cautious optimism.
Deals & Signals of the Week
Sword Health acquires Kaia for $285M, consolidating Europe’s digital physio market and strengthening its German footprint.
Synthesia hits a $4B valuation, backed by Nvidia and Alphabet as a reminder that Europe still produces category-defining AI companies.
One-Line Takeaway
Europe understands the stakes on AI, defence, and sovereignty, but history suggests it won’t move decisively until pressure removes every other option.
