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Climate Tech in a Trump Era, Variable Costs Versus Fixed Costs, and more

Learn directly from Pale Blue Dot, Regeneration VC, Planet A, and other leading European companies and VCs.

Here we go, with the first newsletter of 2024, and let’s get right into it with our first podcast episode of the year, and a fresh published article on the insights platform.

Looking for more insights? Here are some great articles and news from the venture community that you should check out.

  • Applications open for Focal

  • List of European Tech Events for Q1 2025

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Before we dive into the podcast, we wanted to introduce you to our next masterclass session on VC Fund Performance Benchmarking.

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Climate Tech in a Trump Era & Europe’s role in the global agenda

For today’s episode, Andreas is joined by Hampus Jakobsson, General Partner at Pale Blue Dot, Michael Smith, General Partner at Regeneration VC, and Tobias Seikel from Planet A to discuss the future of climate tech in the wake of Trump’s reelection. Together, they analyze how shifting narratives and geopolitical dynamics will impact the climate agenda and the broader venture ecosystem.

The conversation covers:

  • Adapting to uncertainty: How portfolio companies are navigating mistrust and unpredictability while focusing on solving real business problems.

  • Lessons from China: Insights into China’s strategic focus on solar, EVs, and battery production, and how Europe can adopt similar multi-decade planning while fostering cross-border unity.

  • The role of big bets: Reflecting on the fallout of Lilium and Northvolt, the group emphasizes the importance of learning from failures and continuing to back transformative projects in Europe.

  • Stimulating growth: What an ideal EU stimulus plan could look like, from collaborative cross-border energy grids to dual-use strategies between defense and green tech.

Watch it here or add it to your episodes on Apple or Spotify 🎧 chapters for easy navigation available on the Spotify/Apple episode.

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✍️ Show notes

Describe your vantage point in the climate tech ecosystem.

The European climate tech ecosystem thrives on diverse perspectives and strategies, each addressing critical global challenges. By leveraging distinct vantage points, leaders can foster impactful solutions that align innovation with sustainability.

  • Tobi (Planet A): Focused on quantifiable environmental impact, Planet A specializes in scalable green technologies. By integrating a dedicated science team to assess lifecycle impacts, their investments target the sweet spot where business scalability meets environmental sustainability.

  • Michael (Regeneration VC): Anchored in the circular economy, Regeneration VC tackles waste across consumer value chains such as apparel, packaging, and electronics. The fund bridges European and North American markets, advancing technologies that align with planetary boundaries and profitability.

  • Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Investing at the earliest stages, Pale Blue Dot supports founders building solutions for long-term planetary alignment. With a contrarian approach to the "climate tech" label, they emphasize real business impact while navigating the evolving narrative landscape.

Will Trump’s policies have severe impacts on the climate agenda?

The reelection of Trump is expected to reshape the climate agenda, creating ripple effects globally. While opinions differ, the consensus is that uncertainty will dominate the landscape, influencing both narrative and policy priorities.

  • Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Anticipates significant narrative shifts, with a focus on reframing terminology and public discourse. However, he predicts limited divergence from the core agenda, estimating that 60% of goals will remain intact.

  • Michael (Regeneration VC): Highlights the inevitability of instability and uncertainty. The U.S.'s reliability in global climate cooperation is likely to decline further, complicating international collaboration on critical issues.

  • Tobi (Planet A): Emphasizes the bipartisan benefits of measures like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), ensuring partial continuity. However, he foresees a stronger focus on oil and gas, potentially undermining renewable energy progress.

How are your portfolio companies reacting to this uncertainty?

In an era marked by shifting policies and heightened unpredictability, portfolio companies are adjusting their strategies to navigate the evolving landscape. The focus has shifted towards resilience, economic viability, and immediate impact.

  • Michael (Regeneration VC): Companies are prioritizing solutions to real, pressing business problems rather than relying on long-term narratives. Addressing immediate needs ensures sustainability and commercial relevance in uncertain times.

  • Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): The current climate of mistrust and unpredictability has led to an emphasis on short-term strategies. Businesses are adapting to ensure they can operate effectively within rapidly changing conditions.

  • Tobi (Planet A): Economic viability is key. Companies cannot rely on green premiums to justify their business models. Instead, they must focus on solutions that are both sustainable and financially competitive.

Lessons Europe Can Learn from China’s Climate Strategy

China’s rapid advancements in climate tech provide valuable insights for Europe as it navigates its own challenges. By studying China’s strategic focus, Europe can strengthen its competitive edge and global leadership.

  • Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): China's concentrated efforts on solar, EVs, and battery production demonstrate the power of prioritizing specific industries. Europe could replicate this approach by aligning resources and policies around key technologies.

  • Michael (Regeneration VC): Long-term, multi-decade investments have been critical to China’s success. Europe should focus on collaboration and leveraging its diverse strengths, avoiding the pitfalls of de-globalized, isolated strategies.

  • Tobi (Planet A): Cross-border unity is essential for Europe to compete globally. Instead of individual nations vying for dominance, Europe needs to act as a cohesive entity, focusing on shared goals like grid integration and energy security.

What would an ideal EU stimulus plan look like?

An effective EU stimulus plan should prioritize unity, innovation, and strategic investments to ensure long-term resilience and sustainability across the region.

  • Tobi (Planet A): Europe needs to transcend fragmented national policies and adopt a unified approach. Coordinated efforts will unlock the region's full potential and foster global competitiveness.

  • Michael (Regeneration VC): Dual-use strategies combining defense and green tech can create synergies that drive both security and sustainability. Such investments can position Europe as a leader in future industries.

  • Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Establishing cross-border energy grids and fostering collaborative resource sharing are vital. Integrated infrastructure will enhance energy efficiency and support Europe’s renewable energy transition.

The Fallout of Lilium and Northvolt: Implications for the Ecosystem

The challenges faced by Lilium and Northvolt highlight the inherent risks of innovation but also underscore the importance of learning, resilience, and continued investment in transformative ventures.

  • Tobi (Planet A): Failures are an inevitable part of innovation. Rather than retreat, Europe must learn from these setbacks and continue to make bold investments in ambitious projects.

  • Hampus (Pale Blue Dot): Venture capital thrives on high-risk, high-reward bets. While failures draw attention, they are a natural outcome of pushing boundaries and should not deter the ecosystem's momentum.

  • Michael (Regeneration VC): Europe must embrace its regulatory strengths and maintain its commitment to long-term, transformative projects. Strategic planning and targeted support will ensure sustained progress despite occasional setbacks.

Variable Costs Versus Fixed Costs: Lessin’s Lesson

Guest post by Marvin Liao, Partner at Diaspora Ventures & Author of The Hard Fork. | Originally published on The Hard Fork


I was introduced to this concept of Variable costs versus Fixed costs in this wonderfully insightful book called Lessin’s Lessons, written by the father of iconoclastic VC Sam Lessin. His father Bob was a brilliant investment banker and Angel investor during the first dotcom boom in the 90s. Because he had several life threatening illnesses through his early years he wanted to write down lessons for his kids. It’s really great.

One of the concepts he discusses is the idea of variable costs versus fixed costs in life. It sounds very personal finance which it is but it has good relevance to how one lives their lives. So stick with me here for a bit.

Fixed costs are things you have to pay for every month. Your mortgage payment, tuition or car payments, utilities, taxes, your phone bill. It’s the bare minimum you have to cover every month no matter what.

Variable costs are those that you pay sometimes and the amount also varies. This could be a book, food, a trip somewhere or even a phone or computer.

He talks about how his son Sam treats most of his costs as variable. Instead of leasing or buying a place, he pays by the night at a friend's apartment so the costs become variable. He has a policy of having bare bones costs structure and disdain for flashy expensive things showing klout.

It’s an interesting philosophy. Think about our own lives, we start with variable costs but as we get older and have a family as well as lifestyle creep, variable costs become very high fixed costs.

I can tell you all about how expensive supporting a family is. Especially as you want them to have a good lifestyle and also due to some guilt from not being around much. But for most of us we also get trapped in the hedonistic treadmill that I wrote about before.

The trip that used to be variable now becomes normal and a need not a want. Luxury goods become expected. The $500 dollar bottle of wine eventually becomes a thousand dollar bottle of wine. Business class is always better than economy. 5 or 6 star hotels like Mandarin Oriental are hard to beat.

It’s hard to downshift or downgrade your lifestyle. But the irony is that we eventually do as we wise up and start to understand what we truly like and don’t like. When we truly understand what is a need versus what is a must. This definitely helps you get maximum ROI on your spending and not waste money on non essential or things that give you no joy. Damn I wish I learned this earlier.

There is deep relevance to the startup world here too. Think about the bloated growth stage startups who gorged themselves on cheap VC capital and spent it on buying tech that was not useful and hiring people they didn’t need. Variable costs became fixed costs and as the VC money train disappeared and the expected revenue did not show up, they are in for some major pain. Which usually means ugly layoffs and cost cutting to get to break even or profitability, scramble for a working business model if there is no product market fit or worse they just linger like zombies until the business dies.

So the lesson from Lessin, keep your cost structure low by thinking variable costs not fixed costs. And this will give you the freedom and flexibility to survive and take advantage of the opportunities that inevitably show up on the down cycle.

Applications open for Focal

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There are some events that just have to be on the calendar. Here’s our list, hit us up if you’re going, we’d love to meet!

GoWest | 📆 28 - 30 January 2025 | 🇸🇪 Gothenburg, Sweden

Investors Summit Bilbao 2025 | 📆 11 - 12 February 2025 | 🇪🇸 Bilbao, Spain

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