Welcome back to another episode of Upside at the EUVC Podcast, where Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen of SuperSeed, Lomax Ward of Outsized Ventures, and this week’s guest Jone Vaituleviciute, Managing Partner at Firstpick VC, unpack the forces shaping venture across Europe and the Baltics.
This week’s conversation bridges Lithuania’s booming early-stage scene and Europe’s macro tensions — from defense investments and bootstrapping culture to Matt Clifford’s call for “permissionless growth,” the rise of quant capital, and how Europe’s AI reality is evolving fast.
🎧 Here’s what’s covered
00:31 From Startup Wise Guys to Firstpick: why Jone spun out to back Baltic founders even earlier.
04:22 “It will never get cheaper than pre-seed”: on starting at the first line of code.
05:47 The Baltic edge: distribution over product perfection and why bootstrapping still wins.
11:22 €300 M defense deal: Rheinmetall’s Lithuanian factory and why incentives trump fear.
16:23 Matt Clifford’s speech: 17 years of UK stagnation and a call for permissionless growth.
25:04 The politics of productivity — shock therapy vs. bureaucracy fatigue.
33:18 Quant trading boom: XTX’s 25 k GPUs vs. Germany’s 10 k, and where talent flows.
40:19 AI corner: Calm model, Nebius cloud, and Europe’s token factory moment.
52:36 Circular financing or just capital cycles? The debate behind AI mega deals.
55:45 Deals of the week: Nexus AI’s $8 M raise and Poolside’s $2 B round.
✍️ Show Notes
Baltics at Full Tilt
Firstpick doubles down on pre-seed — investing before traction in one of Europe’s tightest ecosystems. With only ~10 local funds, founders often resist VC money. Jone explains: “It will never get cheaper than pre-seed — but also never riskier.”
A region of small markets, fast references, and bootstrapped ambition.
“Founders here think in revenue, not valuation. Bootstrapping is a badge of honor.” — Jone Vaitulevičiūtė
Defense and the New Reality
Lithuania lands a €300 million joint venture with Rheinmetall to build artillery shells — its largest defense investment ever.
For Jone, this is less about fear and more about financial strategy: “The closer you are to Russia, the less threatened you feel.”
Tax breaks and NATO’s presence make it a signal of confidence, not panic.
Permissionless Growth
Matt Clifford’s speech at the LFG conference hit a nerve — a decade of UK stagnation and bureaucracy fatigue.
Mads frames it as a rallying cry: “The mother of greatness is permissionlessness.”
Europe doesn’t need more plans — it needs fewer permits.
Productivity vs. Politics
Lomax calls it “the biggest economic disaster in UK history” — 17 years of flat productivity.
The team debates whether reform and ‘shock therapy’ can revive growth without collateral damage.
“We don’t need new slogans — we need a license to build.” — Mads Jensen
Quants, GPUs & Talent Drift
XTX Markets is building a 25 k-GPU cluster — more than Germany’s entire industrial AI initiative.
While brilliant grads flock to quant trading, Mads warns that “we need those minds building startups, not just arbitrage.”
Still, London’s financial innovation remains a rare bright spot.
AI Corner — Europe’s Quiet Race
Nvidia and Deutsche Telekom launch a €1 B industrial cloud — small next to US hyperscalers but symbolic of momentum.
Nebius, the Yandex spin-out, emerges as Europe’s “invisible AI giant.”
The Calm model from China and token factories spark debate over cost vs. quality and open-source sovereignty.
“Some of Europe’s most important AI companies are the ones no one has heard of.” — Lomax Ward
Circular or Cynical?
The team unpacks the “circular funding” narrative around OpenAI and Nvidia.
Mads argues that cash must eventually change hands for it to be real business.
Healthy capital cycles are fine — just don’t pretend vendor financing is profit.
Deals of the Week
Nexus AI (Lithuania): $8 M from Index Ventures & Avanti Capital — born from NordVPN’s founders.
Poolside AI (France/US): Nvidia invests $1 B of a $2 B round at $12 B valuation.
Baltic bootstraps meet AI mega-rounds — two sides of Europe’s tech story.
💡 One-Liner Takeaway
From Vilnius to London, Europe is learning to build boldly again — not by asking for permission, but by earning conviction.
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