Welcome back to another episode of Upside at the EUVC Podcast, where Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen of SuperSeed, and Lomax unpack the forces shaping European venture capital.
This week: Can Europe build a “VC Alliance” like the US and India? Why pensions remain the missing piece of Europe’s capital markets. Gold, bonds, and macro risk: what really matters for startups. Google’s antitrust reprieve, the UK’s “middling AI power,” and how Europe should play catch-up. Plus: Xi Jinping’s military parade, why manufacturing supremacy is destiny, and quantum’s hot streak in Europe.
Here’s what’s covered:
00:01 Europe’s VC Alliance? Lessons from the US–India deeptech pact
00:06 Europe’s Capital Gap: pensions, late-stage funding, and IPO droughts
00:09 Macro Forces: gold, bonds, deficits, and what founders should care about
00:24 Google’s Antitrust Ruling: no breakup, just data-sharing
00:29 The UK’s Middling AI Power: Eisenberg supercomputer & Europe as a “power user”
00:34 Tesla, humanoid robots, and China’s military parade
00:41 Europe’s Defense & Industrial Base: what’s at stake
00:44 Deal of the Week: Quantum computing’s billion-dollar moment
00:46 Looking Ahead: All-In Summit, new funds, and Lisbon reflections
🎧 Listen on Apple or Spotify — or queue it for later with chapters ready to go.
✍️ Show Notes
Europe’s VC Alliance?
US VCs are teaming up with Indian funds to pour $1B into deeptech.
Dan wonders: can Europe build its own structured alliance — Berlin as manufacturing hub, London as finance?
Mads: Europe already has informal cross-border investing; more structure may stifle entrepreneurship.
Lomax: “Let chaos reign.” Too much top-down coordination kills early-stage energy.
Why it matters: Europe’s ecosystem thrives on fragmentation and entrepreneurial bottom-up energy. Structural capital gaps — not lack of collaboration — remain the bottleneckUpside September 7th with Dan &….
Europe’s Capital Gap
VC per capita: $100 in Europe vs $500 in the US.
Seed funding is comparable; the crunch is Series B+ and IPOs.
Pension capital is still locked out: €850M committed in 2024 — a record, but still a drop in the ocean.
Mads: “We’re €150B short each year.”
Rules reward low volatility, low fee assets — pushing pensions into bonds, not venture.
Why it matters: Without pension reform and equity participation, Europe risks footing the bill without reaping upside.
Macro Forces & Startups
Gold at record highs; bond sell-offs; UK debt still <100% GDP.
Mads: deficit-driven fiscal policy is inflating assets.
Lomax: founders should focus less on macro and more on execution.
Dan: “The gun is loaded” — Europe’s startup pipeline has never been stronger.
Why it matters: Macro sets the background noise, but talent, grit, and capital still decide outcomes.
Google’s Antitrust Ruling
No breakup; Google keeps Chrome.
Must share anonymized click data with competitors — but on commercial terms.
Judge cited LLMs as rising competition — regulators acknowledging creative destruction.
Why it matters: Regulation alone won’t dethrone incumbents — tech cycles will.
UK as a Middling AI Power
Eisenberg supercomputer launched: 11th fastest in the world.
Cost: £250M — tiny next to $320B in hyperscaler CapEx this year.
Mads: “Nice, but we’re not on the field. Focus on basics: digital ID, service automation, capital flow.”
Lomax: 80% of projects are in health & life sciences — UK’s strengths.
Why it matters: Europe may never build foundational models but can lead as an AI adopter — modernizing public services and scaling application-layer winners.
Tesla, Robots & China’s Parade
Elon Musk pivots: 80% of future value in humanoid robotics.
Chinese firms already selling humanoids for ~$6,000.
Xi Jinping’s WWII parade: mass show of drones, robotics, and authoritarian solidarity.
Mads: “Manufacturing supremacy decides wars. China has it.”
Lomax: “We gave up defense for 30 years. Time to rebuild industrial and defense bases.”
Why it matters: Europe’s sovereignty depends on investing in defense, manufacturing, and technology — not just welfare.
Deal of the Week: Quantum
Quantinuum raises $600M from Nvidia at a $10B valuation.
Oxford Ionics acquired by IonQ for $1B earlier this year.
Finland’s IQM hits unicorn status.
Lomax: “Quantum is hot, but a winter will come.”
Why it matters: Europe’s research depth is paying off, but capital scale still lags behind US “gigafunds.”
One-liner Takeaway
Europe’s next chapter depends on fixing capital markets, embracing AI as a user, and rebuilding its industrial & defense backbone.
🤗 Join the EUVC Community
Looking for niche, high-quality experiences that prioritize depth over breadth? Consider joining our community focused on delivering content tailored to the experienced VC. Here’s what you can look forward to as a member:
Exclusive Access & Discounts: Priority access to masterclasses with leading GPs & LPs, available on a first-come, first-served basis.
On-Demand Content: A platform with sessions you can access anytime, anywhere, complete with presentations, templates, and other resources.
Interactive AMAs: Engage directly with top GPs and LPs in exclusive small group sessions — entirely free for community members.
