Welcome back to another episode of Upside at the EUVC Podcast, where Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen of SuperSeed and this week’s guest Andreas from EUVC unpack what’s happening in European venture capital.
This week: Nvidia’s meteoric rise (and first signs of slowdown), Apple’s clash with UK regulators, and why regulators may be fighting yesterday’s battles. Plus: Trump’s Intel equity grab, whether governments should hold stakes in strategic industries, and what Europe can learn from Airbus and Ørsted. Finally, what digital sovereignty really means for Europe in an age of AI, energy bottlenecks, and geopolitical dependency.
Here’s what’s covered:
00:01 Nvidia’s Reality Check: From 20% of Nasdaq to slowing 5% quarterly growth.
00:06 Apple vs UK Regulators: The 30% “Apple tax” and post-Brexit CMA ambitions.
00:13 Competition vs Regulation: Why IBM and Microsoft fell by creative destruction, not regulators.
00:21 Trump’s Intel Shakedown: Retroactive equity grabs and should states take stakes?
00:29 Europe’s State Aid Constraints: Airbus, Ørsted, and why Europe can’t do national champions like the US or China.
00:36 The UK Buying AI: £573M in H1 government contracts, Microsoft & Palantir dominance.
00:49 Defining Sovereignty: Europe’s dependency on US tech and Chinese production.
00:57 Europe’s Luxury Beliefs: Outsourcing energy, defense, and manufacturing — and why pension reform is key.
01:02 Closing Takeaways: Sovereignty is more than regulation — it’s about competing, investing, and not being naïve.
🎧 Listen on Apple or Spotify — or queue it for later with chapters ready to go.
✍️ Show Notes
Nvidia’s Reality Check
Nvidia has grown into a trillion-dollar behemoth — worth ~20% of the entire Nasdaq. It captures ~50% of the value of every $50B data center build-out.
But Q2 showed just 5% QoQ growth, the slowest in years, sparking talk of a plateau.
Mads: “Nvidia is to AI what Cisco was to the internet boom. The question is whether this is 1999 or 2005.”
Dan: “If hyperscaler capex slows, Nvidia’s growth inevitably slows with it.”
Why it matters: Nvidia’s fortunes are the proxy for AI’s adoption curve. If growth slows, it signals hyperscaler spend is peaking — opening questions on when Europe’s startups will feel the trickle-down of compute availability.
Apple vs UK Regulators
The UK Competition & Markets Authority is targeting Apple’s 30% App Store fee and restrictions on third-party payments.
Apple argues this will hurt consumers and stifle innovation.
Mads: “The CMA is fighting the last war. Apple’s dominance is real, but innovation in distribution — from SuperApps to open payments — will do more damage than any fine.”
Why it matters: Europe and the UK risk putting energy into headline battles while missing the chance to shape tomorrow’s platforms. Startups may get breathing room, but structural competitiveness matters more than one company’s margins.
Regulation vs Creative Destruction
Historical parallels: IBM was unseated by Microsoft, Microsoft by Google, Google now by OpenAI/Anthropic. None toppled by regulators — all by new tech cycles.
Dan: “Competition, not regulation, broke IBM. We should ask whether the same dynamic will unseat today’s giants.”
Why it matters: Europe risks over-indexing on regulating incumbents instead of investing to back challengers. The AI race will be won by building, not by regulating.
Trump’s Intel Equity Grab
Trump forced Intel into retroactive equity giveaways in exchange for subsidies — a new level of state intervention.
Debate: Should Europe move beyond grants/tax breaks and take direct equity stakes in strategic assets like chips, energy, or defense?
Andreas: “Airbus proves it can work — coordinated state stakes created a global leader.”
Mads: “But EU state-aid rules tie Europe’s hands. The US can strong-arm firms; Europe can’t.”
Why it matters: Europe must decide whether to stick with constrained subsidy models, or push for structural change that allows equity participation in strategic industries.
Europe’s State Aid Constraints
Airbus and Ørsted show that coordinated state backing can create global champions.
But today’s EU state-aid rules prevent similar large-scale bets.
Mads: “Europe is stuck subsidising incrementally — but without the upside that comes with owning equity.”
Why it matters: Without reform, Europe will keep footing the bill but never own the value.
The UK Buying AI
UK gov signed £573M in AI contracts in H1 2025. Top beneficiaries: Microsoft and Palantir.
Dan: “We’re becoming a power user of AI, but one reliant entirely on US firms.”
Andreas: “There’s an argument this is Europe’s lane — adopt quickly, shape demand, and then build application-layer winners.”
Why it matters: If governments anchor demand with US suppliers, Europe risks funding the scaling of others’ ecosystems, not its own.
Digital Sovereignty Defined
Sovereignty = the ability to act without asking permission.
Current dependencies: US for AI/software, China for manufacturing, Russia (until recently) for energy.
Dan: “Europe has been naïve about globalisation. We outsourced energy, defense, and production, and told ourselves it was strategic.”
Mads: “Sovereignty isn’t a buzzword — it’s a competitive condition. Without it, startups scale on someone else’s stack.”
Why it matters: Sovereignty debates aren’t abstract. They touch compute, energy, and finance — the raw inputs of AI and industry. Without autonomy here, Europe will always be a second-tier player.
Europe’s Luxury Beliefs
Outsourced heavy industry and manufacturing to cut emissions — then imported goods from China with higher carbon footprints.
Dependent on the US for defense, on hyperscalers for AI, and on outdated chip fabs.
Pension funds still locked out of venture, keeping Europe under-capitalised.
Mads: “Without pension reform, Europe’s own savings will never power its own innovation.”
Why it matters: Sovereignty means mobilizing capital, not just writing policy. Without capital depth, Europe can’t compete in AI, chips, or defense.
💡 One-liner takeaway:
Digital sovereignty isn’t about regulation alone — it’s about whether Europe can mobilise capital, compete in AI and energy, and act without asking permission.
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