VC Monte Carlo Simulator

What happens if your assumptions are wrong?

Most venture fund models break long before the fund does. You just usually realise it too late.

A little too much dilution. Entry valuations slightly too high. Follow-ons into the wrong companies. A portfolio that looked balanced on paper but never had enough ownership concentration to generate real outliers.

The result is often the same: years deployed, capital locked up and no realistic path to returning the fund.

The VC Monte Carlo Simulator helps managers pressure-test fund strategies across thousands of simulated scenarios before deploying capital.

Instead of relying on one clean linear model, it shows how sensitive venture outcomes become when portfolio construction, ownership, dilution, valuation step-ups and reserve strategy move even slightly against you.

Because in venture, small assumption errors compound fast.

Developed in partnership with Marc Penkala, General Partner at āltitude.

What it helps you answer

• Can your portfolio construction realistically produce venture-scale returns?

• How much does dilution impact ownership at exit?

• Are your entry valuations too aggressive?

• Do follow-ons improve outcomes or quietly destroy returns?

• How concentrated should your portfolio be?

• What are the probabilities of returning 1x, 2x or 3x+ the fund?

• Which assumptions materially change outcomes?

Who it is for

Built for emerging managers and GPs refining portfolio construction, reserve strategy, ownership targets, entry pacing and fund economics.

What you can model

• Fund size

• Deployable capital after fees

• Portfolio size

• Entry stages and cheque sizes

• Follow-on strategy and success assumptions

• Pre-money valuations and round sizes

• Valuation step-ups

• Ownership dilution

• Graduation and failure rates

• Return distributions

• Concentrated vs diversified portfolio strategies

What it shows

• Thousands of simulated fund outcomes based on your assumptions

• Median, downside and upside scenarios

• Probability distributions across return profiles

• Impact of concentration, dilution and ownership on outcomes

• Expected MOIC ranges across scenarios

• Comparison between entry-only and follow-on strategies

Why it matters

The difference between a robust venture strategy and a fragile one is often not the spreadsheet itself, but the assumptions underneath it.

The VC Monte Carlo Simulator helps managers identify fragile assumptions, pressure-test strategy and understand how portfolio construction decisions shape fund outcomes before committing capital.

Important caveat

This is a simulation tool, not a prediction engine. Outcomes depend entirely on the assumptions used and are designed to stress-test strategy, not forecast exact returns.