Most fund strategies fail mathematically once you run the numbers.
They look right on paper, but when you model ownership, dilution and step-ups together, most of them break. Small changes in assumptions completely break your return profile.
That’s why we built a free, dynamic simulator with Marc Penkala, General Partner at āltitude, to show whether your strategy can realistically return the fund before you commit capital.
Excel models create false confidence. They don’t show how fragile your assumptions are, how ownership evolves across rounds or how follow-on decisions reshape outcomes. This does.
How to use the simulator
If you’re unsure how to structure your assumptions or interpret the outputs, start with the tutorial.
It walks through the simulator step by step so you can set it up correctly and draw the right conclusions from the results.
€50M fund example
Take a €50 million fund.
You write €250K pre-seed checks. It looks like a solid strategy. Then you run the numbers.
One company exits at Series B. That returns ~0.1x of the fund. Even if it reaches Series E, it still doesn’t return the fund.
Change your ticket size or step-ups and the exact same company moves from not returning the fund to returning it.
Same company. Same exit. Different ownership. Completely different outcome.
If your strategy can’t produce a fund returner here, it won’t produce one in reality. And even if it does, even exceptional outcomes can still be irrelevant at fund level, as the Instagram example shows.
Who this is for
This is built for emerging managers, new funds and GPs refining their strategy before they commit capital.
If you are defining ticket sizes, ownership targets or portfolio construction, this is for you.
What the simulator shows you
How your ownership evolves across rounds and what you actually retain at exit
Where fund returners come from in your portfolio and where they don’t
How sensitive your outcomes are to valuation step-ups and dilution
Whether your follow-on strategy improves returns or just shifts capital
When a single investment can return your fund and when it cannot
What you get
A clear yes or no on whether your fund returns
Ownership at exit across different scenarios and stages
Sensitivity of outcomes to valuation step-ups and dilution
Impact of your follow-on strategy on overall returns
Required multiples to achieve a fund return
Scenario comparisons that isolate what actually drives outcomes
Why use it
Most strategies only fail once you model ownership, dilution and exits together
Small changes in assumptions completely break your return profile
What you own at exit matters more than what you paid at entry
Follow-on can improve outcomes, but it won’t fix a broken strategy
A strong deal can still be irrelevant at fund level
You can be directionally right and still mathematically wrong
Some strategies cannot return a fund under any realistic assumptions
See if your fund can return
At this point, the question is simple: does your strategy actually return the fund?
Ownership, dilution and step-ups determine the answer. Until you run the numbers, you don’t know which one you have.
Run your assumptions in the free Fund Returner Simulator and see where your strategy breaks.
