A venture strategy can look disciplined in Excel and still quietly break once dilution, ownership compression, valuation step-ups, portfolio concentration and follow-on decisions collide in the real world.

That is what the VC Monte Carlo Simulator is built to expose before capital is deployed.

Built with Marc Penkala, General Partner at āltitude, the simulator stress-tests venture fund strategies across thousands of simulated outcomes to show whether your portfolio construction can realistically produce venture-scale returns or quietly fail the math.

Because in venture, small assumption errors compound brutally over time.

A little too much dilution. Entry valuations slightly too high. Too much diversification. Follow-ons into the wrong companies. Not enough ownership concentration.

Years later, the result is often the same: capital deployed, time lost and no realistic path to top-tier returns.

Most spreadsheet models create false confidence because they rely on one clean outcome. Real portfolios do not.

The VC Monte Carlo Simulator shows the full distribution instead: upside, downside, volatility, probability ranges and how sensitive outcomes become when assumptions move even slightly against you.

The simulator helps you pressure-test venture strategies across thousands of virtual fund outcomes.

You can model:

You can then compare how those assumptions affect downside protection, upside potential and the probability of producing meaningful fund outcomes.

Take a €50 million fund with roughly €40 million deployable after fees. You build a strategy with 50 pre-seed investments and €800K entry cheques. On paper, the model looks disciplined.

Then you run the simulation.

A slightly higher entry valuation materially changes outcomes. More diversification improves downside protection but reduces the impact of outliers, while a more concentrated portfolio increases upside but also volatility.

Even strong Series C or D outcomes may not materially move fund returns if ownership compresses too aggressively across rounds, and follow-ons only improve performance if you consistently back the right companies.

The exact same strategy can produce completely different return profiles depending on dilution, ownership and portfolio construction assumptions.

That is the point of the simulator.

Most venture strategies do not fail in the spreadsheet. They fail once assumptions start compounding in the real world.

Built for emerging managers and GPs refining portfolio construction, reserve strategy, ownership targets and capital allocation before deploying capital.

Most venture strategies do not fail because founders stop building. They fail because the portfolio math never worked in the first place.

The VC Monte Carlo Simulator helps expose fragile assumptions early, pressure-test strategy under more realistic conditions and understand whether your portfolio construction can realistically produce venture-scale outcomes.

Because being directionally right is often not enough.