Most venture strategies fail the math.
Not because the companies fail. Because ownership compresses, dilution compounds and portfolio construction quietly breaks the return profile.
That is why we built two free tools with Marc Penkala, General Partner at āltitude, to help venture investors, fund managers and GPs stress-test fund strategy, ownership and portfolio construction.
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Fund Returner Simulator
Can your strategy actually produce a fund returner?
Most strategies look right until you model ownership, dilution and valuation step-ups together.
The Fund Returner Simulator shows whether a single company in your portfolio can realistically return the fund, and what assumptions need to hold for that to happen.
Built for:
Emerging managers
New funds
GPs refining ownership and reserve strategy
Investors defining portfolio construction
What you get:
Clear visibility into ownership at exit
Sensitivity to dilution and valuation step-ups
Follow-on impact across scenarios
Required multiples to return the fund
Scenario comparisons isolating what actually drives outcomes
A €50 million fund writing €250K pre-seed cheques can look disciplined on paper. Then you model ownership retention across rounds and realise even strong outcomes may never move the fund.
That is the point.
Most strategies only fail once you run the numbers.
More on the Fund Returner Simulator: Most funds fail the math. Does yours return? (free simulator)
VC Monte Carlo Simulator
One spreadsheet outcome means nothing.
Real portfolios are messy. Dilution changes. Entry valuations drift. Ownership compresses. Follow-ons concentrate risk. A strategy that works in one scenario can completely fail across thousands of others.
The VC Monte Carlo Simulator stress-tests venture strategies across thousands of simulated fund outcomes to show how fragile or resilient your portfolio construction really is.
It helps managers see the full distribution of outcomes across thousands of simulations.
Built for:
Emerging managers
GPs refining reserve strategy
Investors pressure-testing portfolio construction
Funds evaluating concentration vs diversification
What you can model:
Fund size and deployable capital
Portfolio size and cheque strategy
Ownership targets
Follow-on allocation
Valuation step-ups
Dilution across rounds
Graduation and failure rates
Concentrated vs diversified portfolios
What the simulator shows:
Thousands of simulated outcomes
Downside, median and upside cases
Probability distributions across return profiles
Sensitivity to dilution and valuation assumptions
Volatility across portfolio constructions
A portfolio with broader diversification may improve downside protection but reduce the impact of outliers. A concentrated strategy may increase upside while materially increasing volatility. Small assumption changes compound brutally over time.
This simulator shows where.
More on the VC Monte Carlo Simulator: VC Monte Carlo Simulator: Thousands of simulations to stress-test your venture strategy
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